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2024 Home Sales Forecast

Spring Price Trends and Housing Market Predictions for Summer

Take an inside look into the latest trends for home sales and market values in Petoskey and Harbor Springs with this exclusive springtime report, and get a sneak peek at what to expect for this summer season.

The Season Begins Up North

With Memorial Day weekend fast approaching, the start of yet another great summer Up North is right around the corner.

Traditionally, this time of year also marks the beginning of the busy home selling and buying season. But the trends that took shape in our housing market last year have looked poised to continue during the first three months of 2024.

In my 2023 Year in Review report, I showed how home sales volume had dropped from its peak in previous years. And through March of this year, that drawdown continued when the number of homes going on the market declined even further.

But then came April.

New Listings of Homes For Sale in Petoskey and Harbor Springs

The following chart compares the number of new listings of homes for sale in all of Harbor Springs and Petoskey (including Bay Harbor and parts of Walloon) for the first four months in 2023 and 2024.

Do you notice anything that stands out?

New Listings of Homes For Sale in Petoskey & Harbor Springs, First Four Months 2023 vs 2024
Month 2023 2024
JanJanuary 34 34 Homes Listed 30 30 Homes Listed
FebFebruary 49 49 Homes Listed 35 35 Homes Listed
MarMarch 44 44 Homes Listed 29 29 Homes Listed
AprApril 50 50 Homes Listed 73🚀 73 Homes Listed
  • 2023
  • 2024

April Showers Bring... Inventory?

This past April, listings skyrocketed to their highest levels since June of 2022, adding 73 homes to the market in Petoskey and Harbor Springs.

If you compare that to the measly 50 new listings from the same time last year, you might get the idea that 2024 is going to break out of the supply sluggishness we experienced in 2023.

However, home listings inventory normally sees its largest increase from April to May. For example, between these two months, the number of homes for sale increased by +48% in 2022 and +42% in 2023.

But so far in May of this year, new listings are already down by -34% (as of this report's published date).

Effects of Northern Michigan's Early Spring

It's still too early to tell, but the big up tick in inventory could simply be the result of an early spring.

We had a very mild "El Niño" winter here Up North that could have contributed to the early surge in new home listings. After all, it's not often that you can put on shorts and get yard work done right after skiing.

So while home sellers usually will target spring as the best time to sell a house or condo, it's likely that those who were already planning to sell simply took advantage of the nice weather.

Next we'll take a look at the volume of home sales so far this year.

Number of Homes Sold Continues to Decrease

With the curious increase in homes listed for sale, you might naturally want to know if there's been a similar spike in homes sold.

But so far this year, we have not seen positive growth in home sales volume. This next chart compares the number of homes sold (closings) in Petoskey and Harbor Springs during the first four months of 2023 and 2024.

Homes Sold in Petoskey & Harbor Springs, First Four Months 2023 vs 2024
Month 2023 2024
JanJanuary 24 24 Homes Sold 26 26 Homes Sold
FebFebruary 25 25 Homes Sold 26 26 Homes Sold
MarMarch 38 38 Homes Sold 27 27 Homes Sold
AprApril 38 38 Homes Sold 31 31 Homes Sold
  • 2023
  • 2024

While this year started out nearly identical to the same period a year ago, the number of homes sold was down nearly -30% in March and again by over -18% in April compared to 2023.

How will this drop in sales volume combined with an increase in inventory affect home prices? Let's take a look at the money side of things next.

Are Sellers Getting the Prices They're Asking For?

If there's just one reality that stands out in real estate sales it's the overwhelming importance of asking the right price. As my local market reports have shown time and again, when sellers (have to) lower their asking price, they always sell for less.

So now that we're decidedly past the peak of the seller's market in 2020-2021, are today's sellers experiencing a pricing hangover? As always, the market will give us the answer.

Home Sales Price Performance for 2024

Through April, there have been 110 homes sold in Petoskey and Harbor Springs this year. Here's a breakdown of their price performance, and further illustrated in the chart below:

  • 20% of Homes Sold for Over Asking Price
  • 16.36% of Homes Sold for Asking Price
  • 63.64% of Homes Sold for Under Asking Price
This home sales price performance donut chart shows the percentage share of homes sold above, at, and below the asking price from January through April 2024.

To put these results into perspective, consider that in all of 2022 nearly 39% of homes sold for more than their asking price. Then in 2023, this share of happy sellers dropped to about 28%.

Now in 2024, the portion of homeowners selling for more than their asking price stands at just 20% (so far). But what sticks out even more is that nearly 65% of homes have sold for less than their asking price this year.

The market definitely seems to be sending a message.

Are the Prices of Homes Still Going Up?

It almost feels like a given that the price of homes in Petoskey and Harbor Springs will simply go up forever. At the very least, today's home values are sometimes hard to wrap your head around.

So to finish up this report, the charts below provide a broad overview of our market's home prices by comparing them to those from the same period last year.

Prices of Standard Homes ($899,000 and under)

The average square foot price of a standard home rose by +12% for the first four month period this year.

Average Square Foot Price of Standard Homes
Price Measure January through April 2023 January through April 2024
Average Square Foot Price $241/sqft Standard Homes averaged $241/sqft in 2023 $270/sqft Standard Homes averaged $270/sqft in 2024
  • 2023
  • 2024

This increase in prices is a continuation of the slight rise in values that we saw throughout 2023 (albeit without accounting for inflation).

As a general rule, square foot pricing usually provides a more accurate apples-to-apples measure of home value versus median price. But by splitting the market into two segments (standard and luxury), the median home value still can be used for some helpful context.

Median Price of Standard Homes
Price Measure January through April 2023 January through April 2024
Median Price $396,000 Standard Homes 2023 median price: $396,000 $419,000 Standard Homes 2024 median price: $419,000
  • 2023
  • 2024

Again we find that standard home values have risen this year with a +6% increase at the median. Next let's explore what's been happening in our area's luxury home market.

Prices of Luxury Homes ($900,000 and over)

Although the luxury home market can be much more nuanced, the segment has continued to experience healthy growth in 2024.

Average Square Foot Price of Luxury
Price Measure January through April 2023 January through April 2024
Average Square Foot Price $471/sqft Luxury Homes averaged $471/sqft in 2023 $601/sqft Luxury Homes averaged $601/sqft in 2024
  • 2023
  • 2024
Median Price of Luxury Homes
Price Measure January through April 2023 January through April 2024
Median Price $1,337,500 Luxury Homes 2023 median price: $1,337,500 $1,425,000 Luxury Homes 2024 median price: $1,425,000
  • 2023
  • 2024

While the price increase at the median was identical to that of standard homes (+6% give or take), the average price per square foot jumped upward by more than +27%.

What Is Considered a Luxury Home in Petoskey and Harbor Springs?

In this breakdown, homes were grouped into two segments (standard and luxury) based on price to help illustrate the differences in the market.

But special attention needs to be given to what can be considered a luxury home in Petoskey and Harbor Springs.

While a home may be valued below (sometimes far below) the segment's $900,000 mark, it still easily could be considered a luxury home simply due to it's location. And when these conditions exist, the rules of luxury real estate then apply.

As an example, a waterfront home near downtown Petoskey or walking distance to downtown Harbor Springs could be valued at "just" $850,000, perhaps due to its size, number of bathrooms, or even its condition.

But due to its highly desirable location, it would demand price comparisons from the luxury home segment.

Wrap Up and Key Takeaways

Remember, if you're considering selling or if you need some answers before you do, it would be my honor to work on your behalf. I'm available at 231-580-8088 or you can email me here

Looking Ahead to Summer

The trends we've seen so far this year in home sales and market values indicate that we're still somewhat in a seller's market, and some profitable opportunities are yet available for homeowners in the right situations.

But patient buyers might find a flicker of hope in that prices for the majority of the market seem to have leveled off. While rare waterfront properties in Petoskey and Harbor Springs will always fetch a premium, prices could be affected if the inventory of homes for sale continues to increase.

Here are some of the key takeaways from this report:

  • The mild winter and early spring likely contributed to a surge in new listings of homes for sale, when in April 73 homes were added to the market - the highest level since June 2022.
  • Despite the surge in listings, new listings of homes for sale in May (so far) have dropped by 34%.
  • Home prices in Petoskey and Harbor Springs have increased across the board for the beginning of 2024, but only in nominal terms. The ever eroding effects of inflation must be accounted for when considering home values.
  • Home sales volume has not seen positive growth, with a nearly 30% drop in March and a decline of over 18% in April compared to 2023.
  • The majority of homes (63.64%) sold for under the asking price, while only 20% sold for over asking.
  • Standard home prices increased by 12% per square foot and 6% at the median, while luxury home prices saw a 27% increase per square foot.

I look forward to seeing some of you around town, so be sure to say hello if you get the chance!

All content on this website is for information purposes only. Any information contained herein is not intended to provide legal or financial advice, nor does it create an agency relationship. All information is made available without any guarantee, warranty, or representation of any kind. It is your sole responsibility to seek the services of your own legal, financial, accounting, and real estate professionals prior to any such related decisions or transactions.

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